TEMPEST
Experimental severe-weather guidance from a from-scratch, self-training numerical weather model. Updated twice daily.
⚠ EXPERIMENTAL research guidance from an automated model under active development — NOT an official forecast. For watches, warnings and all safety decisions use the NWS Storm Prediction Center (spc.noaa.gov) and your local NWS office (weather.gov).
Cycle 20240520_00z · initialized 2024-05-20 00:00 UTC · outlook valid ≈ 2024-05-21 21 UTC
(f045)
Ensemble: 6 of 8 members completed · domain centered 38.0°N 95.5°W (threat-following)
Peak probabilities — tornado 50%, hail 42%, wind 93%
Ensemble: 6 of 8 members completed · domain centered 38.0°N 95.5°W (threat-following)
Peak probabilities — tornado 50%, hail 42%, wind 93%
Tornado
Hail
Damaging wind
Probability of the hazard within 40 km (25 mi) of a point around the valid time; hatching = 10%+ of members reach the significant tier. Neighborhood ensemble probability from 6 perturbed members.
Skill scoreboard
2 verified cycle(s) · mean tornado-outlook ROC AUC 0.58 (latest 0.70) Every cycle is scored automatically the next day against observed SPC storm reports — the numbers below are not curated.
| Cycle | Domain | Members | Peak tor/hail/wind | Verification |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20240521_12z | 40.8N 94.6W | 8 | 36% / 27% / 100% | AUC 0.70 · Brier skill -0.09 · 22 reports |
| 20240520_00z | 38.0N 95.5W | 6 | 50% / 42% / 93% | AUC 0.46 · Brier skill -0.29 · 21 reports · HRRR 0.84 |